The Valuation : Value Investing Through Valuation

As we move past Q3 2025, the market is once again navigating a turning point—driven by Big Tech earnings, shifts in the Fed’s interest rate stance, crypto volatility, and geopolitical concerns.

While many macro variables remain in flux, the most important factor for investors is the resilience of each company’s growth trajectory.

In this post, we’ll explore the Q4 outlook for two key tech stocks: Palantir (PLTR) and Nvidia (NVDA).

To summarize upfront:

Both stocks are set to move—but at very different speeds.

📉 Palantir (PLTR): Expected Range $135–$155

Palantir appears to be entering a consolidation phase following its explosive run earlier this year.

Fueled by AI-driven hype and strong investor interest, the stock surged in H1 2025. However, it seems the peak momentum may now be behind us.

Many investors now feel the bullish outlook is fully priced in, and Palantir’s current valuation remains high relative to its earnings.

As a software-based company, Palantir often sees its stock price front-load investor expectations long before those expectations show up in actual profitability.

This can lead to sharp pullbacks during periods of growth deceleration.

Given this dynamic, PLTR is likely to trade within the $135–$155 range during Q4.

📈 Nvidia (NVDA): Expected Range $190–$210

Nvidia, by contrast, still appears to have upside left in the tank.

While the sharp short-term rally has eased, the hardware-driven fundamentals are only getting stronger—backed by continued demand for AI chips, expanding cloud infrastructure, and partnerships with autonomous driving firms like Tesla.

Unlike software firms, hardware companies typically take longer to reflect growth in their financials, but when they do, investor confidence tends to strengthen.

As Nvidia begins to show those earnings improvements, its valuation and trajectory become more stable.

Thus, NVDA is expected to see a steady rise toward $190–$210 in Q4.

🧠 Software vs. Hardware: A Strategic Perspective

To truly understand the movement of these two stocks, investors must go beyond earnings and sectors—

and instead, focus on the underlying business models.

Software Stocks

• Fast revenue growth, but slower profitability improvement

• Expectations get priced in quickly, creating steep declines when momentum slows

Hardware Stocks

• Slower earnings realization, but grounded in physical output and supply contracts

• Steady, confidence-driven long-term growth

These structural differences create very different investment experiences—and risk profiles.

📌 Bottom Line: Focus on Direction, Not Speed

If you’re chasing short-term spikes, PLTR may leave you disappointed in Q4.

But if you’re prioritizing consistent earnings growth and reliable market positioning, Nvidia offers a more compelling and stable path forward.

As always, successful investing isn’t just about finding fast movers—

It’s about aligning your strategy with the right tempo and trajectory.